Welcome to Dubai

Cows on the streets, potholes in the streets and a constantly honking traffic of smoking black Tata Diesels and battered little cars, pidgeons in the airport buildings, people sleeping on the floors at Dehli’s old and worn International Airport, currency restrictions and a lively bureaucracy. Only three hours flight and the contrast could not be larger - a large, sparkling airport building, no restrictions in currency or immigration, shops everywhere, motorways with twelve lanes, smooth as silk, European luxury brand cars zipping past. Buildings sites everywhere, but while in India these are staffed with a few people carriyng gravel or bricks in bowls on their heads, here the latest concrete pumps are working round the clock. The only similarity - both times they are operated by Indians..

Time after Oil

A British think tank recently published a report on the future of oil producing countries, with rather depressing conclusions. Out of the 12 countries the report looked upon only three have sucessfully transformed towards a non-hydrocarbon-dependent economy. The others face serious barriers and constraints, with weak governments, poorly performing private sectors and inadequate political and social reforms. Even if they might be able tob sell oil for decades they will reach a plateau period soon, where increasing domestic demand will slow exports and shrink revenues.

Dubai, although not part in this study, also prepares it’s economy for the time after oil. Heavy investments in building and infrastructure, with nearly 50.000 new appartments each year, target for the top segment of the market. Whole new cities are produced out of thin air - health and sports facilities, media and entertainment, offices and trade. The largest container shipping port on the planet, the highest skyscraper, the largest airport - the list of superlatives is long. The economy booms, fuelled by the oil price peaks, at two-digit rates per year. Dubai seems to have made it, rapidly becoming the new business hub in middle east. The young elite, the Dubai Kids, are globally and western oriented, multi-lingual and tolerant. So nothing can go wrong on the path to a splendid future. Or can it?

Dubai’s vision, so it seems, is a paradise of luxury and consumation, with wealthy people enjoying endless boat rides, hours in exclusive shopping malls and dinners in expensive three star restaurants. In a world of diminishing resources Dubai fights for the top end, which is said to be a reliable segment, to be served by an army of servants from less wealthier countries. Right now the country still is in investment phase, the newspaper beeing full of job advertisements, mostly civil engineers, interior decorators and marketing specialists. This boom is propelled by real estate, but who will move into all the new flats and offices? Science, information and knowledge, motor of the 21st century, are not here yet. Already first signs of a speculation bubble appear at the horizon. The new skyscrapers and artificial islands, errected in record time, are said to be made from cheap materials, with a limited lifespan. So Dubai still has to proove whether it will be able to make it’s way once the stream of oil money, currently fuelling progress, runs out.